We enter into a new age of college football as the sport ushers in a new conference that features plenty of re-shaped leagues and a playoff structure that has expanded from four teams to 12.
With more teams vying for the postseason, and two leagues taking on a lion’s share of the contenders with the Big Ten and SEC shaking up the sport with loaded conferences, how should we handle this evolving market?
Considering the postseason is tripling in size, and the criteria is constantly changing with the College Football Playoff Selection Committee still choosing the entrants, there may be some questions in the betting market for how this will develop.
Below, I’ll try to set the stage for this season as well as give some betting guidelines.
College Football Playoffs National Championship Odds Georgia: +280Ohio State: +400Oregon: +650Texas: +850Ole Miss: +1400LSU: +1800Notre Dame: +1800Penn State: +2000Florida State: +3000Michigan: +3000Tennessee: +3500Missouri: +4000Texas A&M: +4000Clemson: +6000Utah: +6000Miami (Florida): +6000College Football Playoffs Odds to Make PlayoffsOhio State: -650Georgia: -600Oregon: -300Texas: -220Notre Dame: -165Penn State: -145Ole Miss: -130Alabama: +100LSU: +125Michigan: +150Florida State: +160Missouri: +180Tennessee: +195Clemson: +200Miami (Florida): +210Utah: +210Texas A&M: +240Kansas State: +280Boise State: +400Liberty: +440USC: +440NC State: +470Oklahoma: +490Louisville: +500Memphis: +550Auburn: +700Oklahoma State: +700Iowa State: +850Virginia Tech: +950Wisconsin: +1000Nebraska: +1000Tulane: +1100Arizona: +1100SMU: +1100Texas Tech: +1200UTSA: +1300West Virginia Mountaineers: +1300Texas State: +1400Appalachian State: +1400How Many National Championship Contenders are There?
Before we get to the expanded CFP, let’s discuss if the National Championship landscape is changing with the new that there will be more teams making the postseason.
I will argue that the same group of contenders will ultimately win the title and it will be an outlier if a shocker comes through in the betting markets. While teams may emerge and make a deep CFP run, a la TCU two years ago, I believe that those types of teams will still run into a buzzsaw that has the talent to win the National Championship more times than not, the Georgia’s of the world.
I believe that the value to win the National Championship is quite saturated, one of the best teams is likely to win it and I would say that the winner will come from the bucket of Georgia, Oregon and Ohio State for the most part.
Yes, there will be other winners because other teams get into the tournament, but I do think the surprise runs will still be caped before the title winner of the time. For now, I'm not interested in taking a flier.
The top four teams will receive a bye, while No. 5 through No. 12 seeds, meaning its very likely that the best teams which I alluded to earlier will have to play one fewer game which can play a factor over the course of a longer season, especially the first of its kind this season. Getting a bye may be super impactful in terms of diminishing returns over the course of the season.
How Many CFP Contenders are There?
To win the title is one thing, and I don’t believe that group is changing all that much, but of course the group of teams that can make the postseason will change quite a bit with more teams eligible to make it.
In my opinion, there will be a ton of focus from the selection committee to get in the most appealing teams. I believe that there will be at least seven teams from the SEC and ACC that makes the CFP with as many as getting into the top 12.
Of course, the ACC, Big 12 and Group of Five will get a team that makes it, but if Notre Dame fails to put up a strong record, there can be a scenario where the committee opts to value the two super conferences over the weaker leagues, a sign that the times have changed.
Depending on how the ACC and Big 12 go, there may only be one spot for the league winner while the at-large spots go to 9-3 or 10-2 teams from the Big Ten and SEC that played significantly harder schedules.
Several teams in those leagues are playing the most difficult schedules week in and week out and are sure to receive the benefit of the doubt. Can a team like Alabama get the nod at 9-3 over some other teams that feast on a weaker schedule, like say, Utah, and go 10-2 but need an automatic bid by winning the conference title game to get in.
I believe that close calls will go to the Big Ten or SEC team due to the committee’s preference for those teams due to the attention those two leagues have focused on it.
College Football Playoff Prediction and Best Bets
So, I’ve set the stage on how I’m treating this new postseason, what am I betting?
To me, I find some value in the to make the CFP betting market, but I’m interested in monitoring it during the season. In all the year’s prior in this format, losing a game was a serious blow to that team’s chances of making the top four, and a second was usually the nail in the proverbial coffin.
Now? A loss may mean very little, but will the betting market react that way?
If an SEC team loses a competitive game, the team has a ton of margin for error relative to prior years behind an even stronger strength of schedule.
So, who do I like?
While I will not be getting invested in the market all too much, I do like Texas A&M’s price to make the postseason.
The Aggies play a daunting schedule, but will have a leg up against Notre Dame in a game viewed as a coin flip with a relatively green Fighting Irish offensive line traveling to Kyle Field.
Further, the team will play its three other most difficult games at home this season, hosting Missouri, LSU and Texas (in the season finale). Of course, there are far from easy games, including at Florida and at Auburn, but this is a team with a high level quarterback in Conner Weigman with a new offensive coordinator in Collin Klein that presents offense alongside a budding star at head coach in Mike Elko, who has a defense littered with blue chip prospects.
The A&M to make the playoff odds haven’t moved after the news that Notre Dame will be a bit shorthanded. I already liked the Aggies in the opener, and believe it can be a springboard to a strong season that has plenty of room to get into the top 12.
If the team is more likely to win one of its hardest games of the season, the CFP market should move too, which it hasn't. 10-2 will surely get the Aggies into the 12-team field, and 9-3 may as well. I'm buying Elko's bunch in his first year in College Station with the runway to win on Week 1 and start a strong season.
Stay tuned for more coverage on this new betting market.
