We’re going to be giving out a lot of MLB bets this season, and those bets will rely upon a lot of data, trends, sabermetrics and patterns that develop as the season progresses.
Today, however, we’re going to go a little bit more with our gut.
It’s Opening Day, and it’s time to rely on a little instinct (and maybe just a little data, too).
In continuing our successful tradition from last season, today we are only going to take bets that pay plus-money. We finished our regular-season bets last year with a 30-23 record – and 27 of those bets paid plus-money.
No risk it, no biscuit.
Now let’s have some fun!
Yes, I know Logan Webb was excellent for the Giants last season, but I just can’t see this San Francisco team being a match for the Yankees at home in the Bronx on Opening Day. This plus money feels like a value to me.
Gerrit Cole is prone to give up the long ball, but let’s face it: This Giants team isn’t prone to hitting them. What are they prone to? Striking out. Giants hitters had the ninth-worst K% in the league last season, and they were eighth-worst in batting average, and this year’s lineup looks no better. Meanwhile, Cole struck out batters at a rate of 11.53 per nine innings last year. The Yankees bullpen that was the second-best in the league last season should be able to control the late innings as well.
Webb outperformed his underlying metrics by a lot last season, and he’s due for regression. He hasn’t looked as sharp this spring, allowing nine earned runs across 18 innings pitched. Webb was only in the 41st percentile of hard hits allowed last season and his strikeout rate was only in the 35th percentile. That doesn’t match up well on paper with a Yankees lineup that scored the second-most runs in baseball and boasts reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge. The Yankees lineup also looks even better this season with a healthy DJ LeMahieu batting leadoff, newcomer Anthony Volpe at shortstop and Josh Donaldson having a productive spring. The Giants bullpen was bottom-11 last season, and though they should be improved, the Yankees should still be able to win this one by a pair of runs.
