Wolverhampton Wanderers really could do with a victory to turn around their appalling start to the season. The Old Gold are struggling for any kind of consistency this term, and currently find themselves in 20th place in the Premier League.
Although they have two draws in their last two games, which is a positive sign in many ways, Gary O’Neil’s side have yet to win a game this term. In fact, they haven’t won a league game since the 27th of April against Luton Town.
It has certainly been a frustrating start to the campaign for the Midlands club, who will surely be desperate to turn around their poor form.
Wolves’ underlying stats in 2024/25
Worryingly for the Old Gold, their underlying stats do not make for great reading. Not only have they been in poor form, without a win for several months now, but they are not really getting unlucky in games, either.
As the numbers from Understat suggest, Wolves are comfortably one of the worst defensive sides in the Premier League this term, something that has massively let them down. They have the leakiest defence, conceding 27 goals, and have also got one of the worst expected goals against totals, with 20.71xGA.
Concerningly, 14 of these have come at Molineux. They have conceded the most goals at home amongst Premier League sides this term, and are one of only two teams to be in double figures for that particular stat.
Venue
Goals against
Expected goals against
Difference
Home
14
9.64xG
-4.36
Away
13
11.06xG
-1.94
Total
27
20.71
-6.29
On the attacking side of things, it has been slightly more positive for the Molineux side than might be expected. They have scored 14 goals this term, the joint-sixth best in the competition along with three other sides.
Worryingly, they are overachieving in their expected goals by a lot, and actually have the worst in the Premier League. O’Neil’s men have currently mustered 10.89xG this term, which is also the highest overachievement in the top flight, with a 3.11 difference.
There is no doubt that something needs to change for the Old Gold soon enough. O’Neil will surely shake things up this weekend, as they face a Southampton team in 19th place and just one point better off. One player who could start is attacker Goncalo Guedes.
Why Guedes could start vs. Southampton
It has been a slow season so far for Portuguese winger Guedes. He has played seven times in the top flight but is yet to start a game, featuring for just 105 minutes in total. However, he has performed well in the Carabao Cup, scoring twice against Burnley in round two and once against Brighton in round three.
The former Paris Saint-Germain attacker’s most recent Premier League outing against Crystal Palace in the 2-2 draw at Molineux.
He featured for 28 minutes, the most he has played in the top flight this term, and had a great impact, grabbing an assist which gave the Old Gold the lead.
He had a fantastic impact off the bench that day, as his stats on Sofascore from the game reflect. The 27-year-old had 20 touches and created one chance, that led to his assist. He was superb off the ball, winning five from six duels and four out of four tackles.
The Wolves number 29, who was described as “tricky” by football scout Antonio Mango, could terrorise the Southampton defence. Guedes’ pace and direct nature in behind could be a real threat to a frail Saints defence, who have conceded 19 times this term.
He could also form a perfect partnership with Wolves’ star attacker, Matheus Cunha. The Brazilian has been starved of chances this season and has four goals in ten top flight games. However, with Guedes’s creative nature, he could be a perfect partner as a number 10 for the former Atletico Madrid man.
It is perhaps no coincidence that the Old Gold scored when the pair were on the pitch at the same time against Palace. That duo could be a rich source of goals for O’Neil, which is largely an untapped pairing.
The Portuguese international is in great form despite so few minutes and is surely full of confidence after his assist against the Eagles. It could be a brilliant selection from O’Neil as he looks to turn their form around this season.
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