DeVonta Smith had a record-setting season in his second year in the league. His 95 receptions were the most in Eagles history and he also set the record for the most catches (159) by a Philadelphia player in their first two seasons.
Most of that damage was done with Smith’s Alabama teammate Jalen Hurts throwing to the former Heisman winner. Even with the arrival of A.J. Brown via trade in the offseason, Smith still paced the team in catches as a sophomore, same as he did as a rookie.
So far in the postseason, Smith has been Philadelphia’s top receiving threat. He leads the team in receiving yards, yards per catch, first downs and he’s tied for first in receiving touchdowns. Despite his standing as one of the top targets in the Eagles’ offense given his familiarity with Hurts, Smith’s player prop expectations are below Brown’s.
Let’s see where his prop markets lie ahead of Super Bowl LVII against the Chiefs.
Over 62.5 (-120) | Under 62.5 (-125)
The game script for Philadelphia’s previous two playoff games are not necessarily informative for what’s projected to be a tight, high-scoring affair. The Eagles beat the 49ers by 24 and the Giants by 31, so Hurts was asked to air the ball out even less than usual. As such, none of his receivers have topped 100 yards total in the postseason—Smith is the closest with 91 (29 of which came on a controversial play where he did not establish control).
In the regular season, though, Smith cleared the 63-yard mark in 10 of 17 games, including his final six heading into the playoffs. In one career game against Kansas City, Smith tallied seven catches for 122 yards as a rookie in a loss last season. This version of Chiefs’ defense isn’t appreciably better against the pass. It ranks 20th in pass defense DVOA and it allowed the 19th-most receiving yards to opponents.
Based on the attention Brown is bound to get, Smith should be well set up to at least see enough opportunities to go over this total.
DeVonta Smith Receptions
Over 4.5 (-167) | Under 4.5 (+110)
Five catches has been virtually automatic for Smith this season, which is why the juice is so heavily on the over. He accomplished this feat in all but four regular-season games, including his last six. This postseason, he recorded six catches against the Giants but just two against the 49ers on only three targets.
Smith’s 95 catches accounted for a little more than 27% of the team’s 350 regular-season receptions. With Hurts’s completion total set at 20.5 (with juice on the over as well), Smith’s past involvement in the offense would lead one to believe he should field five catches, at least.
Kansas City allowed 223 receptions this season to receivers, the eighth-most in the league. The Jaguars’ top two receivers finished with five and seven catches, respectively, in the divisional round and the Bengals’ top two pass catchers each totaled six receptions in the AFC championship.
DeVonta Smith Longest Reception
Over 23.5 (-120) | Under 23.5 (-125)
Smith has hit the over on this prop in all three of his career playoff games. Last year against the Buccaneers, he had a 31-yard catch and he has receptions of 40 and 29 yards this postseason. He’s certainly capable of making big plays, but the larger Brown is the preferred deep target in the Eagles’ offense.
As the season went on, Smith’s average yards per reception rose. Down the stretch, he recorded a catch of 24 yards or more in four of his final six games as his average depth of target increased accordingly. Kansas City isn’t the toughest passing defense by any means, but it ranks seventh in yards allowed per attempt, so it does a decent enough job of keeping opponents in front.
DeVonta Smith Touchdown Markets
First (+1100) | Anytime (+170) | Last (+1150)
Over 0.5 Receiving TD (+155) | Under 0.5 Receiving TD (-250)
Smith’s seven receiving touchdowns are second-most on the team to Brown’s 11, though the Eagles prefer to run in their scores around the goal line having set a record for most rushing touchdowns in a season two weeks ago in the conference title game. In the playoffs especially, Philadelphia has preferred the ground game with seven rushing scores to two passing scores—one of which went to Smith.
With the seventh-best odds of any player in the game to score, Smith does offer some value but his lack of involvement in the red zone is a concern. You’re likely better off betting on Hurts, Miles Sanders or even Kenneth Gainwell running one in than guessing which Philadelphia pass catcher finds the end zone.
DeVonta Smith MVP Odds
+2800
Smith has the sixth-best odds to win MVP but the fourth-best odds among Eagles, behind Hurts, Brown and Sanders, respectively. A receiver (Cooper Kupp) won MVP last year, but the Eagles are a run-first team.
